PHASE 1 / LOW-FREQUENCY CRYPTO QUANT RESEARCH
This is the Crypto section of my broader market research portfolio. I use quantitative work to understand how this market behaves, where returns may come from, and which parts of the opportunity set are realistic for an individual investor.
这是我个人市场研究作品集里的 Crypto 部分。我用量化研究来理解这个市场：价格为什么会这样波动，收益可能来自哪里，哪些机会又真的适合个人投资者去研究。
If you only have half a minute, start here: the current work keeps one low-frequency spot trend baseline, one valuation-aware accumulation candidate, and several archived ideas that explain where common Crypto intuition breaks.
如果只花半分钟看这一页，可以先看这里： 目前我保留了一条低频现货趋势基准、一条估值感知的积累候选方向；其他研究虽然归档，但它们说明了哪些 Crypto 直觉经不起验证。
| Card | What it tells you | 中文说明 |
|---|---|---|
| Active | Spot Long-Only Trend Sleeve is the current right-side baseline. It uses spot execution and simple rules to test whether trend participation can improve risk efficiency. | 现货右侧趋势是当前保留的主线。它用现货和简单规则来验证：右侧参与能否改善风险效率。 |
| Candidate | Smart DCA / Mayer Accumulation asks whether capital that already plans to accumulate BTC can buy with more discipline than fixed DCA. | Smart DCA / Mayer Accumulation 关心的是：一笔本来就准备长期买入 BTC 的资金，能不能比固定定投买得更有纪律。 |
| Archived / Observation | Short leg, Funding Carry, Grid, BOX, and Regime Filter are archived; Cross-Section remains a conditional observation. These pages keep the failed tests visible instead of hiding them. | 做空腿、Funding Carry、Grid、BOX 和 Regime Filter 已归档；Cross-Section 暂时保留为条件性观察。我把这些结果留下来，是因为失败的测试也会改变后面的判断。 |
| Research Skills | Python backtesting, baseline design, cost and execution stress, attribution, robustness checks, failure-mode analysis, and research documentation. | 这部分能看到我如何写回测、搭 baseline、做成本和执行压力测试、拆解归因、检查稳健性，并把研究过程整理成可读文档。 |
| Step | Question | Page |
|---|---|---|
| 00 | What is the current research map? | 00 / Research Hypothesis Tree |
| 01 | How does Crypto's market structure shape where an individual can compete? | 01 / Market Reality & Personal Boundary |
| 02 | Which familiar trading ideas hold up when tested? | 02 / Strategy Triage - From Intuition to Baseline |
| 03 | Which questions have enough evidence for deeper research? | 03 / Strategy Research Library |
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The research map follows questions rather than file locations. Each branch begins with a market belief, then records how the evidence changed the next decision.
这张研究地图按问题展开。每条分支都从一个市场判断出发，再记录证据如何改变后面的决策。
Current map. Market reality → strategy triage → active / candidate / archived research.
当前地图。 市场现实 → 策略直觉检验 → 当前主线 / 候选方向 / 归档研究。