PHASE 1 / STRATEGY MAP
This page maps the Crypto questions I am willing to spend time on. Each branch starts from a market intuition and records what the evidence did to that intuition.
这一页记录我愿意继续投入时间的 Crypto 问题。每条分支都从一个市场直觉出发，再记录后来的证据如何改变这个判断。
A first good-looking curve is not enough. Before a branch moves forward, I want to know whether the result still holds after baseline comparison, attribution, cost, execution delay, robustness, and overfitting checks.
第一条曲线好看还不够。一条研究线要继续推进，必须先和 baseline 对比，也要看清收益来源、成本、执行滞后、稳健性和过拟合风险。
01 / Branches
Market Reality. My starting belief is that Crypto opportunities are not evenly distributed. Some layers are realistic for me to research; others depend much more on infrastructure.
市场现实。 我的起点判断是：Crypto 的机会并不均匀。有些层级适合我投入研究，有些层级更依赖基础设施。
Directional Trend. The first directional question I want to test is whether Crypto's reflexive moves and long right tails can be captured by a slow spot strategy without leverage or shorting.
方向趋势。 我想优先验证的是：Crypto 的反身性和右尾行情，能否被一条不加杠杆、不做空的慢速现货策略捕捉。
Smart DCA / Accumulation. I also care about a different problem: whether left-side accumulation can help long-term BTC capital buy more patiently than lump-sum buying or fixed DCA. The timing logic still has to prove that it improves the actual accumulation process.
智能 DCA / 左侧积累。 我也关心另一个问题：一笔准备长期买入 BTC 的资金，能不能通过左侧积累，比一次性买入或固定定投更有耐心。这里的择时逻辑仍然要证明，它确实改善了买入过程。
Short Leg. I do not assume that falling markets are rising markets in reverse. If I add short exposure, it has to prove itself independently.
做空腿。 我不会默认下跌只是上涨的镜像。如果要加入做空暴露，它必须独立证明自己有效。