PHASE 1 / ANCHOR STRATEGY RESEARCH
Can a daily spot-only trend sleeve improve crypto risk efficiency without leverage, shorting, intraday trading, or hidden discretionary timing?
日频 现货 long-only 右侧趋势，能否在不加杠杆、不做空、不做日内交易的前提下，改善 Crypto 的风险效率？
This is not a maximum-CAGR crypto bet. It is a low-frequency, spot-only baseline that asks whether trend participation can become more auditable, less fragile, and more risk-efficient for an individual investor.
这不是一条追求最高 CAGR 的 Crypto 押注。它是一条低频、现货、不做空的基准策略，用来验证右侧参与能否变得 更容易复盘、更不脆弱，也更有风险效率。
Crypto has long right tails, reflexive trends, and strong beta cycles. But most individual investors should not compete in the same layer as intraday or high-frequency participants.
Crypto 有长右尾、反身性趋势和强 beta 周期。但对大多数个人投资者来说，日内和高频并不是合适的竞争层级。
A spot-only trend sleeve moves the problem to a slower layer: wait for confirmed trend, hold spot instead of leverage, exit on daily close, and let inactive sleeves stay in cash.
现货右侧趋势把问题放到更慢的一层：等趋势确认后再参与，持有现货而不是杠杆，用日线收盘确认退出，没有信号的部分留在现金里。
If crypto trend is real enough at the daily level, a diversified group of liquid spot sleeves should improve risk-adjusted exposure without needing shorts, leverage, or intraday execution.
如果 Crypto 趋势在日频层面足够稳定，一组流动性较好的现货趋势策略，应该能在不做空、不加杠杆、不做日内执行的情况下，改善风险调整后的暴露。
What would support it. The result should beat BTC-only on Sharpe, drawdown, and Calmar; survive realistic execution delay and costs; and not depend on one coin, one year, or one lucky start date.
什么证据支持它。 它应该在 Sharpe、回撤和 Calmar 上优于 BTC-only；能承受执行滞后和交易成本；并且不依赖某一个币、某一年或某一个幸运起点。
What would weaken it. If the edge disappears after next-open execution, cost stress, leave-one-out tests, or rolling-window checks, it should stay as an observation rather than a baseline.